Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 1.463695e-01 0.178153 0.212554 0.252260 0.296537 0.344123 0.398858
2025-03-16 9.670094e-02 0.136790 0.184168 0.243055 0.313092 0.392621 0.488656
2025-03-23 7.230552e-02 0.118088 0.176702 0.254231 0.351231 0.465985 0.609423
2025-03-30 5.045676e-02 0.096960 0.161841 0.253150 0.372966 0.520025 0.709418
2025-04-06 3.540307e-02 0.080964 0.150301 0.253720 0.395288 0.574573 0.811229
2025-04-13 2.589810e-02 0.070556 0.144352 0.260218 0.424563 0.638054 0.925408
2025-04-20 1.931191e-02 0.062906 0.140876 0.269084 0.456599 0.705433 1.045756
2025-04-27 1.413192e-02 0.055934 0.137004 0.276359 0.486039 0.769680 1.163131
2025-05-04 9.276560e-03 0.047235 0.128346 0.274879 0.502195 0.815953 1.257576
2025-05-11 6.403691e-03 0.041823 0.124463 0.280179 0.527840 0.875216 1.369784
2025-05-18 3.820376e-03 0.035119 0.116551 0.277661 0.541130 0.917217 1.459295
2025-05-25 1.659690e-03 0.026795 0.103022 0.263642 0.535498 0.931843 1.511509
2025-06-01 8.598288e-04 0.023246 0.099478 0.267305 0.557961 0.987597 1.621865
2025-06-08 2.544030e-04 0.018274 0.090904 0.260513 0.563116 1.018288 1.698168
2025-06-15 1.238579e-04 0.017311 0.092743 0.273882 0.601492 1.098171 1.843933
2025-06-22 1.570284e-05 0.014402 0.088082 0.273729 0.617250 1.144861 1.943865
2025-06-29 1.999556e-09 0.012086 0.084338 0.274907 0.635025 1.194664 2.048675
2025-07-06 NaN 0.010794 0.083531 0.282098 0.663145 1.260352 2.176691
2025-07-13 NaN 0.009903 0.083851 0.291648 0.695483 1.332784 2.314973
2025-07-20 NaN 0.008917 0.083433 0.299438 0.724853 1.401052 2.447976
2025-07-27 NaN 0.007199 0.079148 0.297949 0.737576 1.443853 2.544740
2025-08-03 NaN 0.006295 0.078007 0.303579 0.763077 1.506628 2.670884
2025-08-10 NaN 0.004921 0.073634 0.300949 0.773335 1.545708 2.762933